The economy now and the prospects for 2026
Guest: Samuel Pessôa, researcher at FGV IBRE and BTG Pactual, and holds a PhD in economics from USP. The third-quarter GDP result, released this Thursday (4), showed a slowdown in the Brazilian economy. The loss of momentum – an advance of only 0.1% in the period – was already expected and points to a growth above 2% for the year. Meanwhile, inflation recedes to 4.4%, a rate within the target limit for the last 12 months – contrary to market predictions, which estimated a price increase of around 6% for 2025. To explain what these numbers say about the current state of the Brazilian economy and what to expect for 2026, Victor Boyadjian talks with Samuel Pessôa. A PhD in economics from USP and a researcher at FGV Ibre and BTG Pactual, Pessôa analyzes the country's macroeconomic data and explains why the 2025 result exceeded market expectations – and issues warnings about possible pitfalls, especially regarding the fiscal aspect. Pessôa also comments on why, even with a heated job market, inflation stopped accelerating – and how this relates to interest rate expectations for 2026. He further analyzes the reasons leading the stock market to register records in recent weeks and points out prospects for the Brazilian economy under the impact of external and internal influences.
Original title: A economia agora e as perspectivas para 2026
Original description: Convidado: Samuel Pessôa, pesquisador do FGV IBRE e do BTG Pactual e doutor em economia pela USP. O…